Top 5 Decentralized Prediction Markets

Best Crypto Prediction Markets in 2024

Most crypto prediction markets either suffer from low liquidity or operate as crypto gambling protocols. The best platforms, however, provide real trading depth, upfront pricing, and reliable market resolution for users seeking accurate event forecasting.

After conducting thorough research, we have identified the best options for 2025 and compiled the following table to provide you with the most important facts in one place.

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1. Polymarket

Polymarket is the largest decentralized prediction market, accounting for roughly 94% of the total market volume. Built on the Polygon network, it enables users to trade predictions on various events, with over $8.4 billion in wagers placed in 2024, predominantly pushed by US election betting.

Users on Polymarket can buy and sell shares representing future event outcomes, with prices reflecting real-time probabilities. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, bettors trade against each other, offering chances to profit from accurate forecasts while contributing to the market's predictive power.

Polymarket allows users to buy and sell event shares freely, reflecting real-time probabilities that often surpass traditional expert predictions. The shares are denominated in USDC, offering a stable and transparent trading experience without relying on volatile cryptocurrencies like ETH.

• Chain: Polygon
• Deposit Methods: Coinbase, Debit Card (via MoonPay), USDC (from Ethereum to Polygon)
• Fees: 0% on trading, deposits, and withdraws

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2. MYRIAD

MYRIAD is a new prediction market launched on Abstract, an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain for consumer crypto applications. The platform has already attracted several million in wagers on outcomes such as the next Chancellor of Germany and whether the Paul brothers will fight this year.

Unlike order book-based exchanges, MYRIAD uses an automated market maker (AMM) model, allowing continuous trading without the need for direct counterparty matching. This ensures greater liquidity, enabling users to enter and exit markets quickly while influencing real-time odds.

Players earn points by participating in prediction markets, completing quests, and engaging with content, with rankings reflecting overall activity. Through its integration with the Abstract Global Wallet, MYRIAD streamlines onboarding, making it a great first choice for new on-chain bettors.

• Chain: Abstract Chain
• Deposit Methods: Abstract Wallet (see how to bridge funds to Abstract Chain)
• Fees: 0% (not counting for network fees)

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3. Drift's BET

Drift's BET launched on Solana in 2024 and quickly disrupted the prediction market space, briefly surpassing Polymarket with an explosive $20 million in daily volume. Recently, the platform introduced “FUEL,” a rewards program that boosts incentives for active traders and stakers.

BET uses an AMM model integrated with Drift Protocol’s lending and derivatives system, allowing users to trade with over 30 Solana tokens while earning passive yield on bets. This enables both leveraged and structured positions, making BET the first capital-efficient prediction market on Solana.

Despite early momentum, cumulative volume has stalled at 6.7 million transactions, with only two active markets: the Super Bowl winner and whether Trump’s World Liberty Financial token will reach a $5 billion FDV. Future growth depends on expanding market offerings and executing on its token roadmap.

• Chain: Solana
• Deposit Methods: Solana wallets including Phantom and Solflare
• Fees: Same as Drift's perpetual market (-0.01% maker and 0.1% taker)

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4. Azuro

Azuro, built on Gnosis, is a decentralized betting protocol, specialized in sports and entertainment markets. It uses a peer-to-pool model, allowing wagers to be placed without reliance on individual counterparties, solving liquidity issues common in prediction markets.

The protocol functions as middleware, enabling developers to integrate betting features directly into their apps. With support for decentralized oracles and AI-optimized pricing models, Azuro is expanding into new categories, including politics, pop culture, and gaming (also called e-sports).

Azuro currently powers 11 prediction apps, including bookmaker.xyz and DexWin, positioning itself as a major infrastructure layer for decentralized betting. As Gnosis provides governance and financial tooling, Azuro is set to grow its market presence while refining prediction accuracy.

• Chain: Gnosis, Polygon
• Deposit Methods: Crypto and fiat onboarding
• Fees: 0-1% depending on the prediction platform

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5. Kalshi

Kalshi is the first fully CFTC-regulated exchange for event trading, making it the best traditional alternative to decentralized prediction markets. It provides legally compliant event contracts on topics like inflation, government shutdowns, and elections, allowing traders to hedge real-world risks.

In 2024, Kalshi became the first platform in over a century to offer legal election betting in the US, following a federal court ruling in its favor. The platform correctly predicted Trump’s victory as the 47th president, challenging conventional polling and reinforcing its reputation for accuracy.

With Donald Trump Jr. joining as a strategic advisor, Kalshi is expanding its influence in the political betting space. Its market-driven probabilities continue to outperform traditional forecasts, solidifying its role as the leading regulated event-trading platform ahead of its competitor PredictIt.

• Chain: Offchain (Centralized)
• Deposit Methods: Bank, Debit Card, Crypto (USDC), and Wire Transfer
• Fees: $0.1-$0.2 per contract
  

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What Is a Decentralized Prediction Market?

Decentralized prediction platforms allow users to trade on real-world event outcomes without intermediaries. Using smart contracts and decentralized oracles, they ensure market integrity, dispute resolution, and straightforward odds based purely on user demand.

These protocols have existed for years, with Augur launching on Ethereum in 2015 as one of the first attempts at on-chain event betting. However, early platforms struggled with high fees, low liquidity, and poor user experience, preventing them from gaining mainstream traction.

Their breakthrough came during the 2024 US election cycle when Polymarket processed billions of waggers. Elon Musk reportedly tracked shifting odds on the platform, demonstrating how prediction markets were influencing and showing higher accuracy than traditional polling.

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How Do Prediction Markets Contracts Work?

Prediction market event contracts allow users to buy and sell positions on the outcome of a future event. These contracts function as markets where the price of a position reflects the collective probability assigned by traders.

To best understand how they work, we need to examine traditional and decentralized models separately.

Traditional Prediction Markets

Traditional prediction markets operate on centralized platforms that control market creation, liquidity, and event resolution. These platforms manage trading mechanics, enforce rules, and handle payouts.

General structure of prediction markets:

• Market creation: A platform or approved user sets up an event contract on a specific affair, such as an election or economic report.
• Buying contracts: Traders purchase "Yes" or "No" shares, with prices fluctuating based on demand and perceived probability.
• Price as probability: The contract price represents the market’s consensus on the likelihood of an event occurring, often between $0 and $1 (e.g. $0.75 implies a 75% probability.)
• Outcome resolution: When the event concludes, correct predictions pay out $1 per contract, while incorrect ones expire worthless.
• Profit and loss: Traders profit by buying contracts at a lower price and selling them at a higher price before resolution or holding until settlement.

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Decentralized Prediction Markets

Prediction protocols that run on blockchain networks, use smart contracts and oracles to execute trades and verify event outcomes. These platforms eliminate intermediaries, ensuring open and tamper-proof markets.

Key components of decentralized prediction markets:

• Smart contracts: Automatically manage trade execution, payouts, and contract settlement without relying on a central authority.
• Oracles: Protocols like UMA power Polymarket by supplying verified real-world data, such as election results or sports scores, to ensure correct market resolution.
• Liquidity pools: Users stake assets to provide liquidity, allowing markets to function without centralized market makers.
• Token-based rewards: Winning traders receive payouts in cryptocurrency or platform tokens, sometimes with additional incentives.
• Governance: Some platforms allow token holders to vote on market rules, contract approvals, and protocol upgrades.

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Are Prediction Markets Legal?

Prediction markets operate in a legal gray area, facing regulatory scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions. Platforms like Polymarket were forced to block US users in 2022 after a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) settlement for $1.4 million in 2024.

Kalshi, in contrast, is a fully CFTC-regulated exchange that successfully fought a legal battle to offer election contracts. In October 2024, a federal appeals court ruled in its favor, allowing users to legally trade on congressional control and presidential outcomes despite the CFTC’s objections.

Despite these legal victories, prediction markets remain controversial, with some countries banning them outright. France, Singapore, and Thailand all blocked access to Polymarket in late 2024, while  the FBI raided the home of its founder, Shayne Coplan, as part of an investigation.

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Final Thoughts

Polymarket brought crypto prediction markets into the mainstream during the 2024 US elections, drawing tens of millions of eyeballs to its controversial but eventually proven to be accurate forecasts.

Now, Drift's BET on Solana and Myriad on Abstract are pushing adoption further, expanding beyond political wagers and striving to catch up to household names like Kalshi.

While early 2025 saw a decline in speculative betting, activity remains steady in key financial markets, with traders focusing on Federal Reserve rate cuts and other macroeconomic events.