Top 5 Decentralized Prediction Markets in 2024

Best Crypto Prediction Markets in 2024

To determine the leading decentralized prediction markets for 2024, we analyzed platforms based on key factors such as market share, technological innovation, user engagement, and liquidity. Our research focused on platforms that have consistently handled large-scale prediction volumes, particularly during high-stakes events like elections. We also evaluated their underlying blockchain infrastructure and overall user experience.

The final list reflects a mix of established leaders and promising newcomers, each bringing unique features and improvements to the onchain prediction market sector.

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1. Polymarket

Polymarket is the dominant player in decentralized prediction markets, accounting for around 95% of total market volume. In 2024, the platform saw a surge in activity, processing over $1.53 billion in wagers, largely driven by US election betting, with around $1 billion riding on political outcomes. Originally centered around the rivalry between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the platform currently centers on Trump versus Kamala Harris.

Built on Polygon, Polymarket offers users a fast and low-cost experience, recently integrating fiat payment methods like credit cards. Investors like Peter Thiel and Vitalik Buterin back the platform for its ability to offer transparent, data-driven insights. Despite US regulations prohibiting election betting, around 60% of Polymarket’s traffic still originates from the United States.

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2. Drift's BET

Drift’s BET, launched on Solana in 2024, has quickly become a competitor to Polymarket. Unlike traditional prediction platforms, BET leverages Solana’s dynamic and fast-paced trading culture to offer a more engaging user experience. In August, it briefly surpassed Polymarket with $20 million in daily volume, quickly raising speculation that we have a new leader in the sector.

Drift’s BET supports 30 different cryptocurrencies and integrates DeFi features like lending, appealing to users seeking both financial returns and entertainment. It plans to expand into pop culture and sports, aiming to solidify its position in the decentralized prediction market space.

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3. Gnosis

Gnosis operates as a decentralized infrastructure Layer 1 provider for prediction markets rather than a direct market itself. It supports platforms like Omen, enabling anyone to create prediction markets and providing liquidity through decentralized oracles. Gnosis emphasizes community governance via GnosisDAO and its GNO token.

The team has also been exploring the integration of AI to drive more sophisticated predictions, aiming to open new types of markets while enhancing liquidity. Its role as a backbone for platforms like Azuro showcases how Gnosis can contribute to decentralized betting by providing a solid suit of decentralized financial tools.

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4. Azuro

Azuro, built on Gnosis, stands out by focusing on sports and entertainment betting through its peer-to-pool liquidity model. This approach solves one of the biggest challenges in decentralized betting—ensuring consistent liquidity even in niche markets. Azuro's middleware layer allows developers to integrate its protocol into their apps, creating a seamless user experience.

By offering scalable liquidity and transparent pricing, Azuro is gaining traction in markets beyond just sports, such as politics and pop culture. With its unique liquidity model and oracles, Azuro is striving to grab its own share in the crypto prediction market platforms niche. Additionally, Azuro is eyeing different ways to incorporate their protocols in gaming too.

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5. Rollbit

Rollbit offers an alternative to decentralized prediction markets, primarily focused on sports betting. Supporting over 100 sports, including soccer, basketball, and eSports, Rollbit stands out for its diverse betting markets and use of provably fair blockchain-based betting contracts. Users can place wagers using top crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

The platform’s standout features include competitive odds, real-time updates, and live streams for in-play betting. Additionally, Rollbit’s rewards system—offering cashback and VIP bonuses—makes it an attractive option for crypto sports betting. Finally, Rollbit offers lower fees for frequent traders to promote its $RLB token.

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What Is a Decentralized Prediction Market?

A decentralized prediction market allows users to bet on the outcome of real-world events using blockchain technology. Modern decentralized platforms overcome these issues with faster transactions, lower fees, and broader market access through stablecoins and DeFi systems.

Traditional prediction markets have been around for years with platforms like PredictIt and Betfair handling billions in annual trading volume. However, they are too centralized and one entity can decide which markets are created, charge high fees, and manipulate or censor markets, reducing fairness and limiting user autonomy.

Decentralized markets ensure 100% accuracy by allowing outcomes to be disputed several times by users, through decentralized oracles, making the system fairer and less prone to manipulation. As a trivial fact, blockchain-based prediction markets aren’t a new concept; Augur, built on Ethereum in 2015, was an early attempt but failed to gain traction due to high fees and low liquidity at the time.

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How Do Web3 Prediction Markets Work?

Web3 prediction markets operate on decentralized protocols, leveraging blockchain and smart contracts to create open, trustless environments for placing bets. Here’s how they work:

• Smart contracts: Automatically execute the betting process, from placing bets to paying out winners, based on predefined conditions.
• Oracles: Provide real-world data to the blockchain, ensuring accurate outcomes for event predictions (e.g., election results, sports scores).
• Liquidity pools: Enable users to stake assets that others can bet against, ensuring that even niche markets remain liquid and bets can be placed easily.
• Token-based rewards: Users can earn cryptocurrency or platform-specific tokens when they win bets, providing additional incentives beyond traditional cash payouts.
• Governance: Some platforms allow token holders to participate in decision-making, influencing market creation, fee structures, and future platform developments.

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How Do Prediction Markets Contracts Work?

Prediction market event contracts allow users to buy and sell "shares" or "positions" on the outcome of a future event. Here's how they work in simple terms:

• Market creation: A user or platform creates a market based on a specific event (e.g., "Will Candidate X win the election?").
• Buying contracts: Participants buy a contract representing their belief in an event’s outcome, usually priced between $0 and $1.
• Contract value: The price of a contract represents the market’s belief in the probability of an event occurring. For example, a contract priced at $0.75 implies a 75% probability.
• Outcome resolution: When the event concludes, the contract is either worth $1 if the predicted outcome is correct or $0 if it’s incorrect.
• Profits and losses: Users make a profit if their prediction is accurate, earning the difference between the contract's purchase price and its final value.

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Bottom Line

Prediction markets are booming during the 2024 US presidential elections, with Polymarket becoming a household name, even getting integrated with Bloomberg Terminal for real-time market tracking.

However, whether its success will continue beyond the election cycle remains uncertain, especially under the shadow of ongoing regulatory scrutiny across the globe. Perhaps there's a *bet* to be made on that.

For now, the top five prediction market platforms are Polymarket, Drift's BET, Gnosis, Azuro, and Rollbit, with more competitors being built on blockchains like Solana, Tron and TON.